A myth about COVID-19 I think.

"Spanfeller is a twat" (theaspiringengineer) 07/20/2020 at 22:18 • Filed to: None

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I remember that at the beginning of the pandemic approximately 39 years ago, some people on twitter started arguing that, because Americans overwhelmingly use cars to transport themselves, the US wouldn’t have much of a disruption due to the infectious disease.

However, now that three of the four countries with the most deaths aren’t particularly known for their robust public mass transportation infrastructure (Mexico, Brazil, the USA) I’m starting to think that the method of transportation that people use doesn’t necessarily impact infection rates all that much, as opposed to other public policy.

Albeit, I’ve read nothing on it, and it was just a passing thought. 

facw > Spanfeller is a twat 07/20/2020 at 22:26

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It does seem like crowded subways, buses, and trains would be ideal for spreading, but of course because of that (and the fact many employers  are closed) public transportation ridership is way down (don’t know if that’s also the case in Mexico). Meanwhile, while driving a car alone should be quite safe, that doesn’t help you if you are driving to a crowded indoor location.

Jb boin > Spanfeller is a twat 07/20/2020 at 22:29

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To be fair, its not a myth, i t’s just “luck” as it would only be even worse if those countries had mass public transportation.

Spanfeller is a twat > facw 07/20/2020 at 22:29

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I think daily ridership has recovered a bit here... I certainly see queues outside bus stations just as before. Plus, some of my friends in europe are acting as if the pandemic is just over... they use public transport at will, and eat in restaurants and host parties, the whole thing. I guess that they reduced the maximum capacity of subway carts in european and asian cities, but other than that... I have no real information on it.

I think the whole issue is “crowded indoor place” 

Spanfeller is a twat > Jb boin 07/20/2020 at 22:44

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Using Mexico as an example (Because, it’s the one country I’ve been researching constantly) Mexico City was the epicenter of the pandemic, and it is the only large city with really good access to public transportation, but now it has started shifting.

Mexico City has had 6000 deaths, adjusted for population, around 67 per 100k

Mexicali, the city with the most deaths apart from Mexico City, has had 1100 deaths, around 159 per 100k

The next deadliest , Puebla, has had 1,100, around 69 per 1000k.

But Tabasco became a hotbed early, in their capital city, the death rate has been 93 per 100k. 



Neither of those have mass public transport options like metros.

Now, this comparison is very hard because of how Mexico is administered. Mexico City isn’t a city, as much as a state with municipalities in it. If I were to include Mexico City’s metropolitan area in the neighboring state (Which would encompass roughly 23 municipalities), the effective death rate would be lower and it would be a fairer comparison given that the other cities I mention fit almost entirely inside a single municipality... So the lower density of the suburbs is considered.

415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) > Spanfeller is a twat 07/20/2020 at 22:50

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The problem is morons not doing what they should be doing, listening to a orangutan pretending to be a president, who isn’t listening to actual doctors. It’s not the transportation, these idiots are getting together in groups. 

Nauraushaun > Spanfeller is a twat 07/20/2020 at 22:57

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It makes sense doesn’t it? Viruses spread through being near others. Public transport is one instance of being near others, but far from the only one.

Therefore it’s far from the only determining factor in the spread of the virus.

Spanfeller is a twat > Nauraushaun 07/20/2020 at 23:01

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Of course, but you’d imagine that for many people, their most exposure to other people is in public transportation... so it should’ve been a big hazard for infection. 

Roadkilled > Spanfeller is a twat 07/20/2020 at 23:04

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I don’t think use of public transportation is a factor. Japan has notoriously crowded public transportation, and so does Hong Kong. Both have done reasonably well and controlling spread.

It’s a matter of how well the population follows rules. Do they believe that the benefit to society as a whole is more important than the individual, or do they believe that individual rights are more important that benefits to society?

Many countries with heavily used public transportation are cultures where the individual must put society first. In these places, if you are showing symptoms, you self-isolate. If you show no symptoms, you wear a mask and don’t complain. Following those two rules goes a long way to curbing spread. If you add working from home and closing schools, you can reduce density on transportation to further help.

Spanfeller is a twat > Roadkilled 07/20/2020 at 23:07

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At the beginn ing of the pandemic, when the US had relatively few cases even in mid March, I saw some arguments on car twitter about how America might’ve been protected by the fact that most people drive everywhere. I know there’s no source... and I haven’t researched it. I was just following up on that.

I now think public transport isn’t an important aspect so long as users have the proper precautions... mostly masks it seems. 

Nauraushaun > Spanfeller is a twat 07/20/2020 at 23:52

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It is true for some people, I think for a lot of people it’s work. In retail you spend the day interacting with people and touching stuff that heaps of other people have touched. Even office jobs involve sharing a confined space with a large number of people.

newnamesameme > Spanfeller is a twat 07/20/2020 at 23:55

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Yeah, that was an early belief due to the massive hit that NY/NJ/MA area took.

The issue isnt density and/or mass transit the issue is public policy and health and human services.

Countries almost as rich as us and countries much poorer than us have done really well in dealing w/this virus. The commonality is a govt response that was thorough and trusted.

Jb boin > Spanfeller is a twat 07/21/2020 at 00:12

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It might be that people in the capital had more people that could work from home (or being jobless if working in tourism for example) while there are more industries in Mexicali and Puebla.

And t here could be the fact that people taking public transportation would have been more worried about getting the COVID and transmitting it, making them more cautious and prepared than most of the car users .

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Roadkilled 07/21/2020 at 01:02

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if this isnt ground zero, youre doing something is wrong

wafflesnfalafel > Spanfeller is a twat 07/21/2020 at 01:28

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A gree - seems the US has been able to find ways of spreading it even worse than places with lots more mass transit. Honestly, this is consistent with the state where I live - the urban western half has far fewer cases than the much more rural eastern half and those are true numbers, not even just rates of infection. So in places that because of their nature and lower population levels should have been able to knock it completely out we instead have the very highest infection rates. Well... how do you explain that...we are a bunch of f’n morons.

AestheticsInMotion > wafflesnfalafel 07/21/2020 at 02:51

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Has the eastern half really passed us up? How did they manage that? 

StudyStudyStudy > Spanfeller is a twat 07/21/2020 at 12:38

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If someone brought up “what if the people don’t believe the pandemic is real and actively and aggressively defy basic public health scenario for reasons of religion, humor, politics, etc etc etc, ” in a meeting of possible outcomes I imagine he would have been asked to leave.

The factor that sets us apart from other countries is not that we drive everywhere or how our population is dispersed, or any other factor , it is that we have and continue to prove it is our basic lack of anything resembling common sense. You can’t compare apples to oranges if the orange continues to demand it is a fish.